A Closer Look at the Claim from DHS Secretary Kristi Noem
On August 19, 2025, Secretary Kristi Noem stated that the U.S. has seen “1.6 million illegal aliens that have gone home voluntarily,” attributing the figure to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). She repeated similar claims at a Cabinet meeting a week later.
The number was echoed in a press release by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), suggesting that since January of that year, around 1.6 million individuals living in the U.S. without authorization had departed the country.
But analysts warn the actual evidence is far weaker than the headline figure suggests. Here’s what we know — and what we don’t.
What the Figures Represent (and What They Don’t)
- The 1.6 million number appears to stem from an August 12, 2025 report by the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), which used data from the BLS Current Population Survey (CPS). The report estimated that the foreign-born population (legal + illegal) fell by approximately 2.2 million between January and July of 2025. CIS.org+1
- The CIS report did not isolate how many of those departures were undocumented immigrants, how many left voluntarily, how many were deported, or how many changed status (for example, obtained legal residency or were mis-counted).
- DHS told PolitiFact that tens of thousands of immigrants used a voluntary-departure app; it did not confirm that 1.6 million people voluntarily self-deported.
- CBS News said the survey sample size for CPS is about 60,000 households and is known to be less reliable for estimating unauthorized immigrant populations; the gold-standard survey is the American Community Survey (ACS). CBS News
Why Experts Say the Figure is Misleading
- Wide margin of error — The CPS sample is too small to precisely measure undocumented population changes, according to the Census Bureau and demographers. PolitiFact+1
- Lack of differentiation — The data do not clearly separate voluntary departures (“self-deportations”), forced removals (deportations), or legal status changes.
- Possible under-reporting — Undocumented immigrants may avoid surveys because of fear of enforcement, causing mis-counts. CIS.org
- Timing issues — The January–July window is short and may reflect migration patterns, survey nonresponse or labor force shifts, not purely self-deportation.
- No official mechanism for mass self-departure — DHS has no publicly detailed breakdown showing 1.6 million voluntary departures; deportation numbers remain far lower. CBS News
What the Numbers Do Show
- The CPS (and similar surveys) suggest the foreign-born population may have declined in early to mid-2025. The CIS report estimated about a 2.2 million drop in that short period. CIS.org+1
- Some employment numbers show declines in industries heavily reliant on undocumented workers, which may support a decline in workforce participation by these groups. CBS News
- DHS has reported small but measurable use of its voluntary-departure programs and apps (though in the tens of thousands, not millions). PolitiFact
Bottom Line: The Claim Isn’t Verified
While the claim of 1.6 million self-deportations is bold and has been repeated by senior officials, it lacks transparent documentation, clear methodology and distinction between voluntary and enforced departures. Researchers say it’s too soon to conclude that 1.6 million undocumented immigrants have left the United States voluntarily this year. CBS News+1
For now, the figure should be treated as a preliminary estimate with large caveats, not a confirmed statistic. Policymakers, media and the public should ask for detailed breakdowns and official data before using it as evidence of a mass exodus.
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